"In the face of the coronavirus pandemic, I am increasingly worried about the future of Nigerians and Nigeria itself from economic, health, social, and security perspectives. Several gigantic storms are gathering simultaneously in Nigeria, and I am worried that we may be ill-equipped to cope.
First, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Nigeria is increasing weekly. The number of confirmed cases jumped by 117 on April 21 and 91 on April 22, totaling 873. That means the number of confirmed cases in Nigeria has tripled in the past ten days. That also strongly suggests that whatever we are doing to contain the spread of the disease is not working well. The trajectory is alarming, raising questions about whether we can still include the spread. Are we maximizing our capabilities in Nigeria and resources to avoid going the way of Italy, Spain, or the United States?
Second, we are beginning to discover community clusters of infections. We have recorded community outbreaks in Abuja (Mpape and Mabushi) that shocked health workers. What we have found is likely only the tip of the iceberg, given that very few people have been tested in Nigeria. So far, we tested less than 10,000 people in a population of 200 million (less than 1% of 1%). The disease may have spread much more profoundly than our data shows. Today, we don't know how many people are already infected or where those people are. That is very dangerous, particularly considering that lockdown could be lifted within a few weeks.
Third, Kano is recording mysterious deaths in its elderly population, and many suspect that the deaths are related to the community spread of COVID-19 from the index case who allegedly attended many functions before he was diagnosed. More than 150 people have died in Kano in the last three days. At the same time, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Kano has skyrocketed to 73. That strongly suggests that there is serious community spread. What is most worrying is that the burial of the 150 people who died was not done in conformity with established guidelines for the burial of those who died from COVID-19 or similar infectious diseases. Consequently, we will likely see more infections and deaths in Kano, the most densely populated city in the North.
Fifth, with a huge debt burden that gulps most of Nigeria's yearly revenue, with little or no Oil sales at the moment, with no productivity (because of the lockdown), and with diminished capacity for internally generated revenue, Nigeria could be bankrupt within the next 60 days according to global experts. That means it will be unable to pay workers and pensioners to meet its financial obligations and to provide essential services to its citizenry. What is the contingency plan for this looming storm? The answer cannot simply be to borrow more.
Sixth, most States in Nigeria are not viable. Without the monthly allocation from FAAC, most States cannot pay salaries or provide essential services. Within 30 days of diminished allocation from the federal government, most states will be on life support. Within 60 days, most States will be bankrupt as well. Imagine the chaos that would ensue across the country when that happens. The whole wheel collapses when the centre hub cannot hold the spokes. A few days ago, the Chairman of the Governors Forum, Dr Fayemi, stated that States might get zero allocation from FAAC in June because of Nigeria's dwindling fortunes. What are the Governors doing to ensure that things will not fall apart? Is any Governor currently working on an Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan?
Seventh, the lockdown enforcement has led to the shutdown of production and the stoppage of commercial activities in most key centres. Virtually all import activities have stopped as well. Consequently, the government cannot receive any assistance from the private sector regarding duties, taxes, and fees. Indeed, the Private Sector needs help from the government at this critical juncture. Because Nigeria is undergoing a financial crisis, there will not be any meaningful help given to the private sector. Beyond the rhetorics of Stimulus and Intervention announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria, how many businesses and households have received money one month after the announcement? Predictably, many companies will not recover from the lockdown. Many workers tenuously holding on to their jobs may never go back to work. In our interdependent society, the ripples of these developments will be felt in the nooks and crannies of every region in Nigeria. That is a gathering storm that is going to sweep a lot of people off their feet.
Eight, more than 70% of Nigerians are engaged in Agriculture. Much of our farming is rain-fed. With the lockdown in effect now, most people do not have the financial resources or the freedom of movement to return to agriculture despite the onset of the rainy season. The inability to return to the farm during this season will reverberate later with dire consequences. It portends danger to our food security. Already, we have seen a sharp rise in the price of essential commodities. With 70 million people in Nigeria already classified as extremely poor, there's likely to be starvation and death resulting from people's inability to return to the farm with adequate resources and as quickly as possible. Nigerian agriculture was already on life support because of the menace of rampaging bandits prone to destroying livelihoods and lives wantonly, which has kept many, especially women, from venturing out to farm. When COVID-19 restrictions and deprivations compound the situation, food shortages and starvation are imminent at a scale we have not witnessed before. What are we doing to avert the looming food crisis?
Ninth, as lockdown continues in our major cities, expect a rise in insecurity. Incidents of armed robbery, home invasion, theft, rape, and kidnapping are being reported now and are likely to increase exponentially in the coming weeks if the lockdown measures are extended. We are already seeing the breakdown of law and order in Lagos and other parts of the Southwest, probably because they went into lockdown before other zones. As the hydra-headed monsters of idleness and financial hardship bite, we will likely see an upsurge in youth restiveness and criminality in many zones. Given that Nigeria's COVID-19 burden is still growing at an alarming rate, we are now caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. That is another storm on the horizon.
Tenth, I am worried about the compound effect of all these shocks on the psyche and the well-being of the illiterate, extremely poor Nigerian who survives from day to day only by going out to hustle for their livelihood. The fault lines are already beginning to crack in some places as people openly defy stay-at-home orders. How much longer can good people who are hungry and hopeless maintain their pretense of civility and order? How long can starving people endure lockdown without revolting, particularly when they only hear rumors of palliative being given to others? This storm is also gathering.
In conclusion, we are teetering on the edge of a make-or-mar moment in our country's history. As we pray for God's mercy, we must also begin to prepare ourselves for a looming period of famine and unprecedented hardship at all levels. There will be a radical realignment of our system as we know it. It has already started. Because of systemic and strategic deficits over the past 60 years since independence, I foresee severe hardship for Nigeria and every Nigerian in the short term. It's inevitable. Saying "God Forbid" is not enough. This is a warning to the reader and to our leaders to buckle up for the unavoidable turbulence that is headed our way when all these ten storms I have identified begin to converge. Being a prayerful nation (not necessarily a spiritual one judging by our actions most of the time), this is the time for earnest prayer and sober reflection. Most importantly, it should be time for planning and preparation. To survive the perfect storm that is gathering and whose thunderous rumblings we can already hear, we must become wiser and more focused as a nation on how to contain the current health pandemic, how to weather the economic crisis, and how to build sustainable systems and structures for resilience. Instead of hiring 774,000 people as the government plans to do, thereby swelling an already bloated workforce on the Government payroll, we should devote the resources to helping farmers return to the field quickly, ensuring security everywhere, and helping our MSMEs return to production. This is the time to nurture self-sufficiency for our nation, diversify our economy, and find ways to reduce our dependency and mindless addiction to foreign things.
I earnestly hope the reader and their family survive the storms confronting us. I also hope that after this seismic quake, Nigeria will eventually emerge wiser, stronger, and better. But the preparation must begin in earnest. We are already running out of time.
Dr. John Osonwa is an Environmental and Climate Change Expert and a Consultant to the National Assembly."